Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Two-Year High
The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the 50.0 growth neutral reading in June, marking its highest level since July 2023, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
June 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
- The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023.
- Bank CEOs expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
- Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months.
- For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
- Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month.
- Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.
- Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decision this week, three out of four bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.
According to Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, MN., “Flyover country is being ignored despite relatively solid growth prospects. Customers remain cautiously positive and willing to invest.”
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May. “This is the 22nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.
Farming and ranch land prices: For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss.
Banking: The June loan volume index declined to 73.1 from 75.0 in May. The checking deposit index fell to 40.4 from May’s 45.8. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.2 from 60.4 in May. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 31 straight months.
Hiring: The new hiring index for June slipped to 52.0 from May’s 52.1. Job gains for non-farm employers have been positive but soft for the last several months.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.
Tables 1 and 2 summarize the survey findings. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, July 17, 2025.
| Table 1: Rural Mainstreet Economy Last 2 Months & One Year Ago: (index > 50 indicates expansion) | |||
| June 2024 | May 2025 | June 2025 | |
| Area Economic Index | 41.7 | 44.0 | 51.9 |
| Loan Volume | 79.2 | 75.0 | 73.1 |
| Checking Deposits | 34.8 | 45.8 | 40.4 |
| Certificates of Deposit and Savings Instruments | 63.0 | 60.4 | 50.2 |
| Farmland Prices | 49.9 | 39.6 | 40.9 |
| Farm Â鶹app Sales | 31.8 | 23.9 | 22.7 |
| Home Sales | 62.5 | 47.9 | 51.9 |
| Hiring | 47.7 | 52.1 | 52.0 |
| Retail Business | 41.3 | 41.7 | 44.2 |
| Confidence Index (area economy six months out) | 29.2 | 30.0 | 37.0 |
Source: