Middle East Tensions Put Global Fertilizer Supply at Risk
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S. military strike on its nuclear sites. If that happens, it could disrupt up to half of global trade in critical fertilizer materials like urea, sulphur, phosphate, and ammonia.
This would primarily affect countries outside the Middle East that rely on fertilizer exports from the region. For example, half of the world’s sulphur shipments come from the Middle East Gulf, mostly headed to China, Morocco, and Africa. Sulphur is essential for producing phosphate fertilizers, and while sulphuric acid can be used as a substitute, supply is already tight.
About one-third of global urea trade also comes from this region, mostly shipped to Brazil, India, Thailand, and Australia. Ammonia shipments from the Gulf make up about 20% of global exports, with major buyers in India, Morocco, and South Korea.
Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden company is a key source of MAP and DAP phosphates, which are shipped from Ras al-Khair. The port also receives sulphuric acid imports, mainly from India and China.
Alternative export routes are limited and less efficient. So far, trade continues, but ongoing tensions could lead to significant supply chain issues. the port might not be able to prioritise fertilizer exports over other commodities. It is also on the far side of the country from the urea and sulphur production facilities.
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